During
the ancient world empires, the locus of power-the center of gravity in the
world economy-went from Persia, to Greece, and then to Rome.' It has remained
in
the West for the past 2000 years. In the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries,
the center moved from the Mediterranean area to northern Europe, then
crossed
the Atlantic to America. The twentieth century turned out to be, as Henry Luce
put it in 1941, the American Century.
The
locus of power now appears to be continuing its move to the east. Based on
present trends, the twenty-first century appears to be the Asian Century.
In
a little more than a decade, that region's share of world economic output has
increased to 25 percent, and that figure is rising. The East's portion
of
the world's foreign exchange has leaped from 10 percent to more than 50
percent, and with national savings rates ranging from 30 percent to 45 percent,
the
East is generating more savings each year than the U.S. and Europe combined.
Lest we forget, it is savings-the creation of capital-that generates economic
growth.
To this add 3 6.5 billion dollars per year-more than 100 million dollars per
day-of capital investment flowing in from Western nations. China has
attracted
more foreign investment in the past five years than Japan has in the 50 years
since World War 11.
However,
a smooth and peaceful transition is highly unlikely. Some are predicting that
the twenty-first century may be the most convulsive period in all
of
world history. A number of factors are conspiring to make the Far East
increasingly unstable over the coming decade. These factors include:
1.
China's inexorable rise to superpower status
2.
The retrenchment of the U.S.
3.
The existence of numerous potential causes for war
4.
A burgeoning arms race.
With
more than 1.2 billion people, China claims 22 percent of the world's
population. Although the country is poor on a per capita basis, China's economy
is
growing by more than 10 percent per year. If the U.S. continues its growth of
about 2.5 percent per year and China continues to grow at its present
rate,
the two economies will reach approximately equal size of about 8 trillion
dollars in the next decade.
(It
could take China a century to overtake the U.S. in per capita income, but this
statistic is largely irrelevant geopolitically. The significant statistics
are
those indicating aggregate resources which China can command rather than the
individual wealth of its citizens.) China's rapid rise to superpower status
will
change the balance of power in the Far East, inevitably destabilizing the
region.
The
inevitable retrenchment of the United States as the protector of the status quo
is another aspect of our relative economic decline. Following World
War
II, the United States accounted for 40 percent of the gross world product
(GWP). This share has now declined to 22 percent and is likely to drop still
further.
Total
U.S. military expenditure accounts for 30 percent of the world's military budget.
For a country with 4.7 percent of the world's population and 6.3
percent
of the world's land mass, it is unlikely to maintain its former level of
dominance.
History
shows a 20-year decline in the United States' commitment to the Pacific region:
In 1975,
the U.S. was forced out of Vietnam and the Communist North Vietnamese took
control of the American- built naval base at Cam Ranh Bay.
In
1976, all U.S. bases in Thailand were closed and all troops withdrawn.
In
1990, the U.S. announced a reduction of U.S. military forces in the Pacific
from 135,000 to 100,000.
In
1992, the U.S. closed its naval base on Subic Bay in the Philippines, its
largest base in the region. Clark Air Base was also closed.
In
1996, the U.S. announced that it would pull out of some of its bases in Japan.
These
moves all point in the same direction, and the message that Asians are
receiving is that they can no longer rely on America for their security.
Serious
potential for war threatens the Far East, including the exploding population
growth, numerous disputed islands, continuing border disputes, and
strong
ideological tensions.
Mainland
China contains 22 percent of the world's population on 7 percent of the world's
land mass, while arable land resources are declining at the rate
of
725,000 acres per year due to erosion and other factors. Obvious targets for
potential seizures include the Russian Far East, Siberia, and Central Asia.
China's
continuing assertiveness toward the resources in the South China Sea is also
highly probable.
China's
energy needs have risen by more than 50 percent over the past ten years, and
the country is now the second-largest user of oil outside the U.S.
Over
the next two decades, China's demand could exceed three times its current
production. Speculative hopes in the South China Sea will strain relations
on
all fronts.
Thousands
of tiny islands in Asian waters are subject to competing claims. For example,
six countries-China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, and
Malaysia-claim
all or part of the Spratly Islands, which are located in the sea lane
connecting the fast-growing economies of Asia with the oil-rich Middle
East.
One Japanese military expert predicts that whoever controls the Spratlys will
gain regional hegemony in the next century.
Other
islands at the center of disputes include the Paracels (Vietnam versus China
and Taiwan), the Tokto Islands (Japan versus South Korea), the southern
Kuriles
(Japan versus Russia), the Senkaku Islands (Japan versus China and Taiwan), the
Natuna Islands (China versus Indonesia), Pedra, Branca (Singapore
versus
Malaysia), and the Sipadan and Ligitan Islands (Malaysia versus Indonesia).
Border
disputes also persist between China and Vietnam, China and Laos, Indonesia and
Papua New Guinea, and Cambodia and Vietnam. Each of these areas could
flare
up with the heightening of insecurities in the region.
Overshadowing
these tensions in recent times is the pressure that China is placing on Taiwan
and the potential conflict between North and South Korea. The
displays
of military force intended to intimidate Taiwan resulted in the U.S. moving two
aircraft carrier groups into the region in March 1966. Defamatory
rhetoric
included threats by China to nuke Los Angeles. Despite the standoff, Beijing
declared that military action against Taiwan would follow any declaration
of
independence, any foreign invasion of Taiwan, and any unsavory foreign military
alliances.
The
Korean situation also deteriorated significantly during 1995 and 1996. The movement
of a North Korean force of over a million men with combat planes
to
the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas has positioned North Korea for a
tactical surprise that could, along with its nuclear weapons, shatter
the
South Korea- Japan-U.S. solidarity during any initial breakouts.
The
new prosperity in Asia, the shifting and uncertain balance of power, and the
numerous tensions are all fueling an arms race in the Pacific that almost
rivals
that of the Middle East.
China
has 5.4 million troops comprised of 3 million forces in active duty, 1.2
million in reserves, and 1.2 million in the People's Armed Police. It has
10,000
tanks, 18,300 heavy artillery pieces, 50 submarines, 55 warships, 500 bombers,
5000 fighter planes, 1040 support aircraft, and 17 ICBM nuclear missiles
capable
of reaching the Western United States. The Dong Feng (East Wind) 31 is a
solid-fuel ICBM with a 5000-mile range and is launched from mobile launchers.
The
Chinese navy, previously the least important figure in China's military lineup,
is now prioritized as the senior service. In purely numerical terms,
it
is remarkably large, with 1150 ships in inventory. That is more than 3fi times
the number of ships operated by the U.S. Navy. China maintains an aggressive
commitment
to converting its costal patrol navy into a jinhai ("green-water")
navy and a blue-water navy by 2020. (A green- water navy is described as
one
able to operate from Vladivostok in the north to the Strait of Malacca in the
south and out to the first island chain.) A world-class blue-water navy
is
China's scheduled goal.
China
has operated up to 100 submarines over the last 30 years. In addition to
substantial purchases of Russian Kilo-class submarines, the Chinese navy
also
boasts the Xia nuclear ballistic missile submarines, which look very much like
the USS George Washington or the Russian Yankee-class boats. These
subs
originally carried 12 JL-1 submarine launched ballistic missiles-called CSS N-3
in the West. These single-stage, solid fuel missiles resemble the Polaris
A-1
and are credited with a range of 2500 nautical miles. China's multiple
independently targetable re-entry vehicle payload missiles, the CSS-4, are
presently
being
sea-tested, with a more advanced CSS-N-4 also under development.
The
Chinese navy also boasts its Han-class nuclear powered attack submarines. While
not as quiet as the Russian or U.S. boats, these vessels are highly
respected
among professionals.
China
is presently negotiating the purchase of an aircraft carrier from the Ukraine,
in addition to as many as 20 Kilo-class submarines. Experts do not
believe
that Russia has sold any wake-homing torpedoes to China, but Kilos are reported
to be so equipped. U.S. surface ships still do not have any anti-wake-homing
torpedo
capability.
China
launched its first communications satellite on a new Long March-3 rocket in
April 1984. At least nine communications satellites are now available
for
naval links as needed. China has been using downlink data from the Japanese GMS
and the U.S. Landsat, Nimbus-1, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
satellites to provide critical oceanographic data to support their submarine
operations.
The
U.S.-China relationship is clearly becoming the most geopolitically important
one in the world, replacing the old U.S.- U.S.S.R. rivalry. Unfortunately,
U.S.-China
relations have reached a low point and are getting worse. Diplomatic strains
involve disputes of human rights, trade, and America's involvement
with
the affairs of Taiwan.
The
abuses of human rights in China are beyond imagining. It has been estimated
that over 60 million people have been slaughtered by the Communists.' The
harvest
of body parts and organs from political prisoners and other abuses have been
the subject of major concerns to the West. More than 3100 slave labor
camps
are presently exploiting tens of millions of slave labor prisoners to produce
much of the 45 billion dollars in Chinese goods exported to American
markets.
China
is the fourteenth-largest export market for American goods; U.S. exports to
China reached 9.3 billion dollars in 1994 (yet our trade deficit with
China
last year was 35.9 billion dollars). To exacerbate an already strained
relationship, the CIA has concluded that China has indeed recently delivered
important
components for missile systems to Iran and Pakistan. These components are
believed to improve the accuracy of the North Korean Scud missiles
already
in Iran's arsenal and will enable it to build such missiles on their own.
Further, in the past three months China has delivered M- 11 medium-range
missiles
and parts to Pakistan, in violation of an international accord.
Moscow,
in its desperate search for funds, has been transferring vast quantities of
arms and high technology to China. This can lead to Russia's worst nightmare:
an
authoritarian neighbor with an economy roughly the size of America (ten times
the size of Russia), but with a population four times as large, sharing
a
land frontier impossible to defend. Experts indicate that by 2010 China will
have between 70 and 75 ground-force divisions, around 3000 combat aircraft,
60
to 70 major surface vessels, and 50 to 60 submarines. Russia's Pacific Force,
on the other hand, will consist of just 15 to 20 ground-force divisions
(down
from the current level of 34 and the 1980 level of 46), 400 to 500 combat
aircraft (down from 965 today and 1300 in 1980), 40 major combat surface
vessels
(down from 80 in 1980 and 50 today), and less than 20 submarines in the Pacific
(down from the current figure of 35).
Russia's
Far East has a history of trying to break away from Moscow's control, and in
1917 it was one of the first regions to do so. It took five years
before
Moscow regained control (during which a small expeditionary force of U.S. and
Japanese troops landed at Vladivostok to assist the White Army against
the
Bolsheviks in 1919).
The
massive influx of over 25 million Chinese migrants is a growing and intolerable
threat to Russia's Far East. A Department of Defense study attaches
an
85 percent probability to the rolling disintegration of Russia, yielding China
an opportunity to encroach on the Russian Far East.
In
the table of nations in Genesis 10 we find a reference to a tribe called the
Sinites. Sinim is derived from a root suggesting "thorns." This
suggests
a
people living at the extremity of the known world; some believe it is
identified with the inhabitants of China. This probably derives from Ch'in, the
feudal
state in China from 897-221 B.C., which unified China in the third century B.C.
and built the Great Wall. In later eras the Ch'in boundaries were
always
considered to embrace the indivisible area of China proper. It is from this
dynasty that the name China is derived. (Also note the Greek sinae and
the
French Late Latin sinae.)
Thus
we have sinology, the study of Chinese, especially with reference to their
language, literature, history, and culture. The Sinitic (Chinese) languages
have
in common a number of features, many of which are typological in nature:
monosyllabic, tonality, affixation, indistinct word classes, use of noun
classifiers,
and strict word order. Phonological correspondences in shared vocabulary have
been important evidence in the argument that all Sino-Tibetan
languages
derive from a common source.
During
the Ch'in dynasty, the first governmental standardization of characters was
instituted and involved some 3000 characters.' The Ch'in characters have
to
a large degree remained the standard to the present day.'
Archaeological
researchers in Central Asia have disclosed extremely ancient seats of culture
east of the Caspian Sea and have suggested the possibility
of
migrations from what is now Sinkiang and Mongolia (and possibly from farther
west) and also of very early transmission of art forms from western Asia
and
southeastern Europe.
In
the second half of the first millennium B.C., to protect itself from the
Hsiung-Nu, a powerful group of nomadic tribes which then occupied the lands
now
in northern China, the Ch'in began to build the Great Wall along their northern
frontiers in the late fourth century B.C. The Muslim writers in the
eighth
century refer to the Great Wall of China as Sud Yagog et Magog, "the
ramparts of Gog and Magog."' The Muslims refer to Gog and Magog as
Vadjuidj
wa
madjudj in the Koran.'
In
Isaiah 49:12 we also find a provocative reference: "Behold, these shall
come from far; and, lo, these from the north and from the west, and these from
the
land of Sinim."
In
Revelation 16:12 we also find the Far East joining the Armageddon conflict:
"And the sixth angel poured out his vial upon the great river Euphrates;
and
the water thereof was dried up, that the way of the kings of the east might be
prepared." It is interesting that the phrase "kings of the east"
translates
literally
from the Greek as "kings of the rising sun" (avnatolhlj Viou). This
is, however, the classic way of speaking of the East, so one might make too
much
of this. (Or could the Holy Spirit be hinting at something more precise than we
generally suspect?)
The
current rapprochement between Japan and China is extremely provocative from a
prophetic viewpoint. The combination of Japan's capital and technology
with
the labor and raw materials of China is expected to spark, during the next
decade, the biggest economic boom that planet Earth has ever seen.
Our
horizon continues to be moving toward the lineup that fits the classic biblical
scenario-in Europe, the Middle East, Russia, Israel, and now also the
Far
East. We are indeed in the times of the signs!
I
personally believe that you and I are being plunged into a period of time about
which the Bible says more than any other period of time in history-including
the time that Jesus walked the shores of Galilee and climbed the mountains of Judea. Each of us as believers has a twofold challenge: 1) to find out what
the
Bible predicts about these times; and 2) to find out what is really happening
in our world today. Both are essential.
"Behold
ye among the nations, and regard and wonder marvelously, for I will work a work
in your days which ye will not believe, though it be told you" (Habakkuk
1:5).
"The prudent man foreseeth the evil and takes refuge, but the simple pass
on and are punished" (Proverbs 22:3; also 27:12).